Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Neat Little Trading Strategy based on COMPRESSION

Wanna see something cool? (All rights go to Jeff Kennedy for the pictures below)

Why don't you do this: find a stock - any stock. Plot as many moving averages as you can (e.g. 5 SMA, 10 SMA, 30 SMA, etc.), and then see if they compress. If they do, then it means something is about to happen. You may then buy a straddle. Or, if you're really keen on predicting where it will go and think you can determine the direction, make a directional bet. If not, then buy a straddle.



Monday, April 9, 2012

Net Non-Performing Assets vs. Total Non-Performing Assets

Over my time in finance, I've come across many ways of valuing companies - especially banks. From sitting through classes to applying a multiple on pre-tax, pre-provision profits at work, there are countless ways to value and monitor bank quality/profitiability.

One curious descrepancy I noticed recently while working with a dataset of bank data was the difference between net non-performing assets (NPA) and total non-performing assets. NPA is defined as "a debt obligation where the borrower has no paid any previously agreed upon interested and principal repayements to the designated lender for an extended period of time" (Investopedia).

Banks usually classify loans past due into three categories: 30-89 days past due and still accruing, 90 days or more past due and still accruing, and nonaccrual. NPA figures come from the loans past due with nonaccrual status.

The difference between total NPA and net NPA is derived from the FDIC Loan Loss Sharing provision. A brief background of this provision can be found off an investment thesis I've written up:

FDIC introduced Loan Loss sharing into purchase and assumption (P&A) transactions in 1991, with the goals of: (1) sell as many assets as possible to the acquiring bank and (2) have the nonperforming assets managed and collected by the acquiring bank in a manner that aligned interests/incentives of FDIC and acquiring bank. Under loss sharing agreements, the FDIC agrees to absorb a significant portion of the loss (usually 80%) on a specified pool of assets while offering even greater loss protection in the event of financial catastrophe – the acquiring bank is liable for the remaining portion of the loss.

The loan loss sharing agreement primarily covers commercial and real estate loans. The way it worked was that the FDIC absorbed credit losses over a period of time (3-5 years) during which the FDIC reimbursed the acquiring bank for 80% of the net charge-offs (charge-offs minus recoveries). During the shared recovery period, the acquiring bank pays the FDIC 80% of any recoveries on loss share assets previously experiencing a loss. The shared recovery period runs concurrently with the loss share period and lasts 1-3 years after the end of the loss share period.

The agreement also includes a “transition amount” – if losses exceeded this projected amount, the FDIC would assume 95% of the losses and the acquiring bank would assume 5%. This provision addresses acquirer’s concerns about catastrophic losses resulting from limited due diligence time and uncertain collateral values stemming from deteriorating markets.

If you are looking through quarterly filings, be sure you know which NPA you are looking at - total or net. Usually a bank will report one or the other - either only total NPA or only net NPA with a footnote explaining why they chose net NPA. These figures do not mean the same thing, thus inconsisencies arise when running screens and calculations - as it is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison and there are undisclosed assumptions made which are not published.

Furthermore, I've checked with the major data vendors, and their data does not make any distinction between net and total NPA. XBRL formats record the numbers interchangeably - net as total NPA when available.

If you're interested in learning more about net vs total NPA's, implications, and access to both total and NPA figures for banks that only publish net NPA (no instances I've found where they'll publish only total when they can publish net NPA) - please contact me and I'll be glad to share.

Monday, March 26, 2012

MF Global claims, 90+ cents on the dollar?

As you are probably aware, MF Global filed for bankruptcy on Oct. 31, 2011 after sustaining substantial losses and using client money to pay for losses. In total, $1.6 billion dollars of client money was unaccounted for. Banks are now vying for these claims, with Barclays leading the charge.

What might be surprising at a cursory glance is the amount offered per dollar on these claims. Offers are as high as $0.9125 cents on the dollar for US Exchanges and $0.6625 for Foreign Exchanges. You might think that these banks are sure sticking their neck out to make a relatively small and uncertain return, but there's more than meets the eye.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/16/mfglobal-customerclaims-idUSL2E8EFBFO20120316

Roughly $3.9 billion dollars have been paid back to the US Exchange customers, equalling about $0.72 on the dollar of the claims. Furthermore, there's a plan for a distribution of $600 million in the next two months, another ~$.11 on the dollar.

Thus if you are offering $.90 on the dollar, you are really paying 18 cents (.90-.72) to receive 28 cents (1.00 - .72). Factor in a distribution of 0.11 cents on the dollar in the next two months, and with a couple assumptions the IRR looks pretty sweet. Even if you're not going to get 100 cents on the dollar, that is still a great return.

Another point that many people bring up is that if you're a big bank sitting on a pile of cash that was paid to you from MF Global, you:
  1. Know where the missing money is
  2. Will be forced to pay it back, so you might as well make some money in the process

After you buy up all the claims at $.72, take a look under your seat and find x millions of dollars from MF Global. You gladly return it knowing that it'll come right back to you.

I think it's a solid trade and the banks prove yet once again how clever they can be.

Thursday, March 22, 2012

What Happened to TVIX?

This write-up is based on a Seeking Alpha article I read by Paulo Santos. He hit the nail right on the head with his analysis, and today’s 29% drop can be explained by his investment proposal.

First, we have to ask, what is TVIX?
TVIX is an Exchange-traded note (ETN), a debt security issued by an underwriting bank that tracks a particular benchmark/strategy. In this case, the bank is Credit Suisse and the benchmark is 2x the VIX. TVIX is meant to be a short term holding, as if you read the prospectus, you come across this statement:
“As explained in “Risk Factors” in this pricing supplement, because of the way in which the Closing Indicative Value of the ETNs and the underlying Indices are calculated, the amount payable at maturity or upon redemption or acceleration is likely to be less than the initial principal amount of the ETNs, and you are likely to lose part or all of your initial investment. In almost any potential scenario the Closing Indicative Value (as defined below) of your ETNs is likely to be close to zero after 20 years and we do not intend or expect any investor to hold the ETNs from inception to maturity.”

An ETN usually tracks closely to its Net Asset Value (NAV), the value of the underlying futures that the issuer holds (though the ETN doesn’t own it). The catalyst to the break in TVIX not tracking its NAV was Credit Suisse’s suspension of issuing new units of TVIX. This breaks the no-arbitrage rule, as the supply is gone. The usual supply is from the issuer (Credit Suisse), when it issues the shares at NAV and collects fees, Authorized Participants (AP’s) then make money by selling it at market prices when they’ve created it at NAV cost. They keep selling until the market price tracks closely to NAV again (re-establishing no-arbitrage).

However, when there are no shares to be sold, then the ETN trades like a closed-end fund. A closed-end fund usually trades at a huge premium to NAV due to the difficulty of finding shares to borrow. Paulo noticed/mentioned this when the premium was 18.3% greater than the underlying. Before it reverted back towards NAV levels today, the premium had gotten close to 80%.

The reversion could probably be due to people becoming aware of the mispricing, leaked information about new issuances, hedge funds wanting to take profits, etc. Lots of reasons on why it could revert, it was only a matter of time before it would.

In the future, when you are considering trading in ETFs/ETNs, be sure to read the prospectus and take a look at the underlying.

TVIX Prospectus:

Here's a nice picture mapping TVIX to it's intrinsic value (NAV):


Chartist Friend from Pittsburg's graphs



Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Thanks Jim Montier for this pic



Analysts expect profit margins to continue their incredible rise. Though on a P/E basis I agree that the market is not overvalued, this chart certainly grabs my attention.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Cointegration

I recently listened in on a Mathworks seminar about cointegration and tests used to determine if cointegration exists. I thought the best part was providing a sample trading strategy based on divergence and eventual convergence of cointegrated stocks - and how they used various tests to create indicators for the day-trading time horizon. I've always been a more long-term oriented investor - but I do see the need shift to shorter-term strategies, especially in this headline-moving market.

I will definitely delve into this area some more and share some of the trading ideas I come across along the way.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Long shorted names?

YTD, most-shorted names up 5.8% vs Russell 3k's 4%.

Decent strategy might be to long the most shorted stocks and hedge with some OTM VIX calls or OTM S&P puts.

Here's a list of the most shorted stocks thanks to CapIQ

Photobucket

Monday, January 2, 2012

The 5 questions of 2012

Happy 2012. 5 key questions to ponder as this year progresses:

  1. Will US growth be greater or less than consensus?
  2. How much will the Eurocrisis subtract from US growth?
  3. Will US housing bottom in 2012?
  4. Will there be Fed easing? Where?
  5. Will inflation be higher or lower than Fed target?

Happy trading.