Thursday, July 28, 2011

What does it mean?

So just the other day, I decided to take a big position in a firm I was bullish about. I did my research and knew that the company was going to blow the socks off the estimated earnings. I knew further that the debt ceiling crisis had taken a toll on this stock as well as the greater market, this past week alone the stock had fallen ~ 5% and taken me from big gains to moderate losses.

Well after the close was the moment of truth. At then it hit. EPS was 22% above estimates. Actual revenue beat estimated revenues by 10%. Annual earnings revised up 40%. The stock was up 8% after hours. I had a BUNCH of naked calls. I slept well that night.

I woke up the next morning and saw that the bid/ask were nowhere near the highs of the prior afternoon. This was a stock with a daily avg volume of roughly 1 million shares, so I knew there might be some big spreads... but there wasn't. The spread was 5 cents, and it was flat compared to yesterdays close (read still down ~5% for the week). I was in disbelief.

The stock opened 1% up and proceeded to fall to -3.5% for the day, on average trading volume and no new information. I listened in on the conference call and all the analysts congratulated the company on a stellar quarter. The guidance was positive. WHAT is going on?

Well, rather stay in and find out, I got out before it dipped negative, though I lost out a lot on the costs of flat earnings when playing options. Now that I have some time to review the trade, I still can't seem to figure out what went wrong...

TTM and forward P/E are <10, good history of beating estimates, no real cost headwinds or economic slowdown forseen, CEO fielded questions in earnings call cleanly and positively, stock had been rising in the past month and had taken a turn when the impending debt ceiling had become a lot more of a reality than something to be aware of.

I still have a long-dated option in play, taking my nasty -8.5% tumbling this week. In options territory that's roughly a 20% loss. I am still bullish on the stock, and maybe I'll buy in more conservatively right after this debt fiasco is over, but this was one of those textbook stocks and textbook stories that you are supposed to tell at the dinner table - you do your homework, you're on the right side of the call, you get rewarded. Turned out not to be that way.

If you have any idea why a company (not this company in particular) would act in such a way... please give me some guidance. Thanks.

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